The Buffalo Bandits Chase for Four Begins

The Buffalo Bandits dropped a miserable game against the Oshawa Firewolves 12 to 8 to end their regular season. If Buffalo had won, they could have finished second place in the standings. Instead, they find themselves down at fifth and starting the playoffs on the road. As long as Buffalo does not have a repeat performance like they did against Oshawa, they have a chance. 

Let’s quickly crash through their final game (no detailed breakdown) and move on to what matters now. The Bandits simply looked terrible on Saturday night. The offense was feeling the lack of Tehoka Nanticoke and Clay Scanlan. The defense allowed multiple transition goals. One of the best penalty kill units allowed the Firewolves to go 4-for-6 on the powerplay. The powerplay for the Bandits only scored once during a 7-minute opportunity and allowed a shorthanded goal. Matt Vinc looked solid at times with big saves but allowed a few he would want back as well. Then there were the fights. The Bandits seemed to get chippy as the score was getting more out of hand. Normally, it’s not something I love about them, but I can understand the frustration. However, Ian MacKay tried to bait goalie Doug Jamieson into a fight with 15 seconds left in the game. When one team is headed to the golf course and the other is attempting to win their fourth straight title, it simply isn’t a wise decision from a veteran team. I have heard of getting the bad play out before the playoffs. If that was the plan, they succeeded. Maybe the loss was a blessing in disguise. Heading into playoffs on an eight-game win streak is a bit dicey. Hopefully the loss humbled them before the games truly matter. 

Now, we turn our focus to round one of the playoffs. A few weeks ago, my co-host and I explained that the Georgia Swarm were the last team we wanted to see in the first round, especially on the road. Well, here we are. The Swarm finished the regular season scoring 193 goals compared to Buffalo’s 199. Georgia has plenty of veteran offensive fire power with Shayne Jackson (32g, 50a) leading the way, followed by Lyle Thompson (29g, 48a) and Bryan Cole (14g, 38a). They also had two young guns add incredible depth as rookie Nolan Byrne (36g, 19a) led the team in goals and Kaleb Benedict (17g, 32a) had an impressive sophomore season. They may not have the 1, 2, punch that the Bandits do, (few teams do), but their depth is just as consistent with six players finishing the season over 30 points, while the Bandits only had five. A lot of the comparison between these two teams will come down to playoff experience. Offensively, if Dhane Smith and Josh Byrne are on, I think the Bandits have the upper hand. If those two are contained by the Georgia defense, it may be the Swarm’s depth that shines through. This will also be the Bandits first playoff run without Chase Fraser and Chris Cloutier. Last season, they added a combined 22 points with Fraser third on the team with 8 playoff goals. The style and timeliness of Fraser’s goals will be hard to replicate. Cloutier had the important hattrick against the Saskatchewan Rush in game 3. It will be interesting to see how Buffalo performs without two of their clutch playoff performers.  

Comparing the two defenses is not easy as they play an apples to oranges system. Personally, I prefer the defense of the Georgia Swarm because I love the caused turnover game. Georgia finished with 191 caused turnovers compared to Buffalo’s 140. They had nine players finish with 10 or more caused turnovers and their offense contributed quite a few as well. Once again, they have a good mix of veterans and youth on their defense and transition. Jordan MacIntosh led the team in transition with 10 goals and 22 assists to go along with 109 loose balls and 22 caused turnovers. Rounding out their veteran core are Adam Wiedemann (75lb, 12cto), Kason Tarbell (40lb, 16cto), Mike Manley (62lb, 14cto), and Jeff Henrick (61lb, 11cto). Adding to their veterans is a nice injection of youth with Michael Grace leading the way. He finished the season with 6 goals and 8 assists while adding 108 loose balls and a team leading 28 caused turnovers. He has been in rookie of the year conversation all season long. Jacob Hickey (90lb, 21cto) and Seth Van Schepen (66lb, 12cto) may not be rookies, but they add plenty of youth to this unit as well. The Bandits have a nice blend of both veteran and youth on their team with plenty of depth to go along with it. It will be interesting to see who the Bandits have on their starting roster as it seems as if they run a different lineup in every game. Steve Priolo has mentioned on his podcast how the Bandits defensive system doesn’t allow for the flashy stats to rack up. Mitch de Snoo is a great example of this. During his last three healthy seasons before coming to Buffalo, he finished with over 30 caused turnovers in each one. This season he finished with only 18 in 14 games with the Bandits. That number of caused turnovers isn’t bad as he finished second on the team and likely would have led the team had he not been injured. However, he added a new career high in blocked shots with 30, second only to Paul Dawson, who had 39 himself. Buffalo had three of the top 10 blocked shot leaders in the league. As a team Buffalo had 158 blocked shots compared to Georgia’s 90. That is the big difference between the two units. One focuses on caused turnovers, and one focuses on a system the locks down players and forces plenty of blocked shots. The Bandits don’t have quite the consistent transition threat you’d like to see, but four of their defenders finished with 11 or more points. Nick Weiss scored one goal during the 2024 playoffs, that goal came against Brett Dobson. I think both defenses had solid seasons, and I am not sure if one has an edge over the other. It truly depends on what style of defense you prefer.  

Goaltending is the scariest comparison, arguably for both teams. Brett Dobson shattered records as he finished with an incredible season-long 7.86 goals against average and an 84.7 save percentage. This right here was the reason we did not want to see Georgia in the first round of the playoffs. In a single elimination round, you do not want to see the hottest goalie in the league. He had a couple of hiccups late in the season allowing 12 against the Vancouver Warriors and 10 against the Halifax Thunderbirds. However, he has since righted the ship allowing under 10 goals in the final four games. As much as Dobson may be the x-factor for Georgia, Matt Vinc can be that same x-factor for Buffalo. There was a lot of talk about Vinc finally being washed up. In 2025, he finished the season with a 10.71 gaa and 79.1 save percentage. In 2026, he ended the season with a 79.1 save percentage again, but a 9.85 gaa as the scoring in the league was down a bit. Most important though is Vinc’s playoff stats. During the championship run, he has a combined 15-2 record, 8.09 gaa and an 83.9 save percentage. In Dobson’s two career playoff games, he holds a 0-2 record, 10.16 gaa and an 82.1 save percentage. His winless record is not by his doing as he has performed well in those two games. Will there be a passing of the torch? Or does Vinc have one last magical playoff run left in him?  

Often when playoffs come down to one goal games, the special teams can be incredibly important. The Bandits power play was number one in the league finishing with a percentage of 60.7. This is where they have the largest edge either team has in this matchup. Georgia ended the regular season with a power play percentage of 44.7. In their last three games, they scored on 9-of-12 opportunities. However, Buffalo still holds an impressive advantage between the two teams. On the penalty kill the teams are once again evenly matched. Buffalo finished with a 62.2 penalty kill percentage while Georgia finished with a 58 percentage. If Buffalo can get it going, their power play unit may be the deciding factor in this game.  

These two teams are about as evenly matched on paper as it comes. Georgia would appear to have the upper hand on defense and in net. However, playoff Matt Vinc is a different kind of beast. Both offenses are evenly matched with Buffalo having the two headed monster and Georgia spreading their offense out a bit more evenly. Buffalo’s power play unit has a clear advantage over Georgia, but Georgia’s penalty kill was among the best in the league. After all of this, sit back and strap in for what should be a wild first round matchup. Can Buffalo continue their historic run? Or will there finally be a new NLL champion. It all starts on Saturday.